PS&L Blog

Do you remember the movie Jerry Maguire and the famous line “you had me at hello”?  Wouldn’t it be great if all we had to do was say hello to a recruit, in just the right way, and know  that we “had” them as an enrollment?

There are some other interesting statistics out there that are going to significantly affect the yield and therefore enrollments in colleges in the fall of 2010.  This past week, NACAC released the results of a study, “Effects of the Economy on the Admissions Process”.   Some of the statistics they reported included factors that demonstrated a change in the behavior of many college bound high school students:

• Guidance counselors report an increase in delay in post-secondary education
• Students making application to more colleges than in the past year

The study also reported trend changes that tell us as admissions and enrollment professionals, we need to work smarter.

• 34% of post-secondary institutions reported budget cuts to the admissions department
• The average number of positions lost was 2 full-time persons

The thing of it is … they were born roughly 18 years ago, so the number of students is no surprise; and in some states the number of students is going to drop exponentially over the next couple of years. What we did not know was where they were all going to high school, or how local and state populations would be shifting.  The only surprise was the turn the economy would take at the same time these numbers would drop, and how families were going to react.

For fall 2009 many colleges took a big hit either on enrollment or both enrollment and yield. Anything we knew 2 years ago, changed this year.  All our model predictors are now gone.  Certainly what we at PS&L saw, was that those families who were not directly financially affected by the economic downturn (loss of job, underemployment, etc) were affected emotionally by what they saw around them happening to friends and family. Bottom line: decisions were being made differently this year.  So, the question is, what is our new baseline?  What models can help us predict 2010 and 20111 enrollments?

I suppose if I had a crystal ball and could give you a conclusive answer, you would all be very happy.  The reality is that we need to base decisions not on statistical analysis of the past, but what we know to be true:

• The college admissions decision is an emotional one
• Students make decisions on where they will attend with their families
• Parents are singularly the most influential in the decisions of where to attend
• Teachers, peers, guidance counselors, coaches are most influential in where a student applies to college

The question I pose to you as an admissions professional: how well do you know your recruits?

At PS&L we have always advocated that by building real relationships with recruits from the very first introduction, we will be in a much better position to not only lead them to enrollment, but also be able to predict those enrollments with a great degree of accuracy.

Yield is not just about winning them at the end it is about starting to win them from the first hello.